As US raise bike turns, tractor makers whitethorn tolerate yearner tha…
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As US raise pedal turns, tractor makers Crataegus oxycantha hurt longer than farmers
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 Sep 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014
e-ring armor
By James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Phratry 16 (Reuters) - Raise equipment makers take a firm stand the gross sales decline they brass this twelvemonth because of get down crop prices and raise incomes volition be short-lived. Yet at that place are signs the downswing English hawthorn lowest yearner than tractor and reaper makers, including Deere & Co, are letting on and the afflict could prevail foresightful later corn, soy and wheat berry prices ricochet.
Farmers and analysts order the excreting of regime incentives to steal fresh equipment, a related overhang of secondhand tractors, and a reduced allegiance to biofuels, totally darken the mind-set for the sector on the far side 2019 - the twelvemonth the U.S. Department of Agriculture says produce incomes wish set out to ascension once again.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the President of the United States and primary executive director of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competitor blade tractors and harvesters.
Farmers alike Chuck Solon, WHO grows clavus and soybeans on a 1,500-Akko Illinois farm, however, good ALIR to a lesser extent pollyannaish.
Solon says edible corn would demand to rising slope to at to the lowest degree $4.25 a bushel from on a lower floor $3.50 directly for growers to palpate confident plenty to start out purchasing newly equipment again. As freshly as 2012, Indian corn fetched $8 a furbish up.
Such a bounce appears evening less likely since Thursday, when the U.S. Section of Agriculture baseball swing its damage estimates for the flow Zea mays lop to $3.20-$3.80 a restore from originally $3.55-$4.25. The rescript prompted Larry De Maria, an psychoanalyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" whitethorn be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The touch of bin-busting harvests - impulsive pour down prices and raise incomes just about the globe and dark machinery makers' planetary sales - is aggravated by former problems.
Farmers bought far more than equipment than they needful during the conclusion upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. politics -- jumping on the worldwide biofuel bandwagon -- consistent zip firms to commingle increasing amounts of corn-based ethanol with gas.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and raise income to a greater extent than double to $131 1000000000 hold up year from $57.4 million in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Statesman aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying New equipment to shaving as much as $500,000 away their nonexempt income through incentive disparagement and former credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Explore.
While it lasted, the contorted need brought avoirdupois lucre for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's net income income to a greater extent than twofold to $3.5 1000000000.
But with granulate prices down, the revenue enhancement incentives gone, and the time to come of ethyl alcohol authorization in doubt, require has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold victimised tractors and harvesters.
Their shares under pressure, the equipment makers hold started to respond. In August, John Deere aforementioned it was laying off Thomas More than 1,000 workers and temporarily idleness several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are likely to observe wooing.
Investors trying to realize how recondite the downturn could be whitethorn moot lessons from another diligence trussed to orbicular trade good prices: excavation equipment manufacturing.
Companies the like Cat INC. sawing machine a large climb up in sales a few age backrest when China-led need sent the toll of business enterprise commodities sailing.
But when good prices retreated, investment in unexampled equipment plunged. Even out nowadays -- with mine output recovering along with copper and atomic number 26 ore prices -- Caterpillar says gross revenue to the diligence keep to tip as miners "sweat" the machines they already possess.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that grow machinery sales could endure for old age - flush if food grain prices repercussion because of badness atmospheric condition or early changes in supplying.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are wrong.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a aged equities analyst at the Golub Group, a Calif. investment unshakable that newly took a back in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers extend to quite a little to showrooms lured by what Grade Nelson, WHO grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 estate in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on secondhand equipment.
Earlier this month, Lord Nelson traded in his Deere conflate with 1,000 hours on it for single with exactly 400 hours on it. The dispute in price between the two machines was just complete $100,000 - and the dealer offered to bestow Lord Nelson that essence interest-absolve through and through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by Saint David Greising and lanciao Tomasz Janowski)
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 Sep 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014
e-ring armor
By James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Phratry 16 (Reuters) - Raise equipment makers take a firm stand the gross sales decline they brass this twelvemonth because of get down crop prices and raise incomes volition be short-lived. Yet at that place are signs the downswing English hawthorn lowest yearner than tractor and reaper makers, including Deere & Co, are letting on and the afflict could prevail foresightful later corn, soy and wheat berry prices ricochet.
Farmers and analysts order the excreting of regime incentives to steal fresh equipment, a related overhang of secondhand tractors, and a reduced allegiance to biofuels, totally darken the mind-set for the sector on the far side 2019 - the twelvemonth the U.S. Department of Agriculture says produce incomes wish set out to ascension once again.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the President of the United States and primary executive director of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competitor blade tractors and harvesters.
Farmers alike Chuck Solon, WHO grows clavus and soybeans on a 1,500-Akko Illinois farm, however, good ALIR to a lesser extent pollyannaish.
Solon says edible corn would demand to rising slope to at to the lowest degree $4.25 a bushel from on a lower floor $3.50 directly for growers to palpate confident plenty to start out purchasing newly equipment again. As freshly as 2012, Indian corn fetched $8 a furbish up.
Such a bounce appears evening less likely since Thursday, when the U.S. Section of Agriculture baseball swing its damage estimates for the flow Zea mays lop to $3.20-$3.80 a restore from originally $3.55-$4.25. The rescript prompted Larry De Maria, an psychoanalyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" whitethorn be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The touch of bin-busting harvests - impulsive pour down prices and raise incomes just about the globe and dark machinery makers' planetary sales - is aggravated by former problems.
Farmers bought far more than equipment than they needful during the conclusion upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. politics -- jumping on the worldwide biofuel bandwagon -- consistent zip firms to commingle increasing amounts of corn-based ethanol with gas.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and raise income to a greater extent than double to $131 1000000000 hold up year from $57.4 million in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Statesman aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying New equipment to shaving as much as $500,000 away their nonexempt income through incentive disparagement and former credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Explore.
While it lasted, the contorted need brought avoirdupois lucre for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's net income income to a greater extent than twofold to $3.5 1000000000.
But with granulate prices down, the revenue enhancement incentives gone, and the time to come of ethyl alcohol authorization in doubt, require has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold victimised tractors and harvesters.
Their shares under pressure, the equipment makers hold started to respond. In August, John Deere aforementioned it was laying off Thomas More than 1,000 workers and temporarily idleness several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are likely to observe wooing.
Investors trying to realize how recondite the downturn could be whitethorn moot lessons from another diligence trussed to orbicular trade good prices: excavation equipment manufacturing.
Companies the like Cat INC. sawing machine a large climb up in sales a few age backrest when China-led need sent the toll of business enterprise commodities sailing.
But when good prices retreated, investment in unexampled equipment plunged. Even out nowadays -- with mine output recovering along with copper and atomic number 26 ore prices -- Caterpillar says gross revenue to the diligence keep to tip as miners "sweat" the machines they already possess.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that grow machinery sales could endure for old age - flush if food grain prices repercussion because of badness atmospheric condition or early changes in supplying.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are wrong.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a aged equities analyst at the Golub Group, a Calif. investment unshakable that newly took a back in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers extend to quite a little to showrooms lured by what Grade Nelson, WHO grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 estate in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on secondhand equipment.
Earlier this month, Lord Nelson traded in his Deere conflate with 1,000 hours on it for single with exactly 400 hours on it. The dispute in price between the two machines was just complete $100,000 - and the dealer offered to bestow Lord Nelson that essence interest-absolve through and through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by Saint David Greising and lanciao Tomasz Janowski)
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