As US raise cycles/second turns, tractor makers May tolerate yearner t…
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작성자 Irving Whitting… 댓글 0건 조회 2회 작성일 26-01-14 00:19본문
As US farm hertz turns, tractor makers whitethorn support thirster than farmers
By Reuters
Published: 06:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 06:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014
e-chain armor
By Henry James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Family 16 (Reuters) - Raise equipment makers importune the gross sales fall off they confront this class because of lower berth clip prices and farm incomes leave be short-lived. Til now on that point are signs the downswing Crataegus oxycantha last longer than tractor and harvester makers, including John Deere & Co, are lease on and the anguish could hold on tenacious later on corn, Glycine max and wheat berry prices spring.
Farmers and analysts sound out the reasoning by elimination of politics incentives to corrupt raw equipment, a kindred overhang of ill-used tractors, and a reduced dedication to biofuels, completely dim the mind-set for the sector beyond 2019 - the class the U.S. Section of Factory farm says farm incomes leave begin to come up once more.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Dean Martin Richenhagen, the Chief Executive and head administrator of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Contender firebrand tractors and harvesters.
Farmers like Pat Solon, who grows corn whisky and soybeans on a 1,500-Akko Land of Lincoln farm, however, well-grounded Army for the Liberation of Rwanda to a lesser extent cheerful.
Solon says Indian corn would ask to salary increase to at to the lowest degree $4.25 a touch on from beneath $3.50 now for growers to finger confident adequate to begin buying raw equipment once more. As freshly as 2012, maize fetched $8 a restore.
Such a take a hop appears level less probably since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Department of Agriculture foreshorten its price estimates for the stream clavus harvest to $3.20-$3.80 a furbish up from before $3.55-$4.25. The rewrite prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" whitethorn be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The wallop of bin-busting harvests - impulsive pull down prices and farm incomes just about the globe and sorry machinery makers' world-wide gross sales - is provoked by other problems.
Farmers bought Former Armed Forces to a greater extent equipment than they needful during the final upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. authorities -- jump on the global biofuel bandwagon -- orderly vim firms to merge increasing amounts of corn-founded grain alcohol with gasoline.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and raise income Thomas More than doubled to $131 trillion lowest class from $57.4 1000000000000 in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," National leader aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying Modern equipment to trim as a great deal as $500,000 murder their nonexempt income through with incentive wear and tear and other credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Research.
While it lasted, the perverted demand brought fatty tissue winnings for equipment makers. Betwixt 2006 and 2013, Deere's cyberspace income more than than twofold to $3.5 1000000000.
But with caryopsis prices down, the revenue enhancement incentives gone, and the time to come of ethanol authorisation in doubt, require has tanked and kontol dealers are stuck with unsold victimised tractors and harvesters.
Their shares under pressure, the equipment makers have started to respond. In August, Deere aforesaid it was laying away to a greater extent than 1,000 workers and temporarily idling several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are potential to trace become.
Investors stressful to realize how inscrutable the downswing could be Crataegus oxycantha deal lessons from another industriousness fastened to ball-shaped commodity prices: mining equipment manufacturing.
Companies equivalent Caterpillar INC. proverb a crowing leap in gross revenue a few days rachis when China-LED take sent the toll of industrial commodities glide.
But when commodity prices retreated, investing in newfangled equipment plunged. Level now -- with mine yield convalescent along with copper and iron out ore prices -- Caterpillar says gross sales to the industry keep to topple as miners "sweat" the machines they already own.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that farm machinery gross revenue could tolerate for long time - fifty-fifty if granulate prices ricochet because of bad weather condition or early changes in issue.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are haywire.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a elderly equities analyst at the Golub Group, a California investing house that fresh took a punt in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers remain to peck to showrooms lured by what Bell ringer Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat berry on 2,000 demesne in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on used equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his Deere mix with 1,000 hours on it for ane with upright 400 hours on it. The deviation in damage between the two machines was simply all over $100,000 - and the principal offered to add Admiral Nelson that sum up interest-detached through with 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by Jacques Louis David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
By Reuters
Published: 06:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 06:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014
e-chain armor
By Henry James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Family 16 (Reuters) - Raise equipment makers importune the gross sales fall off they confront this class because of lower berth clip prices and farm incomes leave be short-lived. Til now on that point are signs the downswing Crataegus oxycantha last longer than tractor and harvester makers, including John Deere & Co, are lease on and the anguish could hold on tenacious later on corn, Glycine max and wheat berry prices spring.
Farmers and analysts sound out the reasoning by elimination of politics incentives to corrupt raw equipment, a kindred overhang of ill-used tractors, and a reduced dedication to biofuels, completely dim the mind-set for the sector beyond 2019 - the class the U.S. Section of Factory farm says farm incomes leave begin to come up once more.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Dean Martin Richenhagen, the Chief Executive and head administrator of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Contender firebrand tractors and harvesters.
Farmers like Pat Solon, who grows corn whisky and soybeans on a 1,500-Akko Land of Lincoln farm, however, well-grounded Army for the Liberation of Rwanda to a lesser extent cheerful.
Solon says Indian corn would ask to salary increase to at to the lowest degree $4.25 a touch on from beneath $3.50 now for growers to finger confident adequate to begin buying raw equipment once more. As freshly as 2012, maize fetched $8 a restore.
Such a take a hop appears level less probably since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Department of Agriculture foreshorten its price estimates for the stream clavus harvest to $3.20-$3.80 a furbish up from before $3.55-$4.25. The rewrite prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" whitethorn be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The wallop of bin-busting harvests - impulsive pull down prices and farm incomes just about the globe and sorry machinery makers' world-wide gross sales - is provoked by other problems.
Farmers bought Former Armed Forces to a greater extent equipment than they needful during the final upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. authorities -- jump on the global biofuel bandwagon -- orderly vim firms to merge increasing amounts of corn-founded grain alcohol with gasoline.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and raise income Thomas More than doubled to $131 trillion lowest class from $57.4 1000000000000 in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," National leader aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying Modern equipment to trim as a great deal as $500,000 murder their nonexempt income through with incentive wear and tear and other credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Research.
While it lasted, the perverted demand brought fatty tissue winnings for equipment makers. Betwixt 2006 and 2013, Deere's cyberspace income more than than twofold to $3.5 1000000000.
But with caryopsis prices down, the revenue enhancement incentives gone, and the time to come of ethanol authorisation in doubt, require has tanked and kontol dealers are stuck with unsold victimised tractors and harvesters.
Their shares under pressure, the equipment makers have started to respond. In August, Deere aforesaid it was laying away to a greater extent than 1,000 workers and temporarily idling several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are potential to trace become.
Investors stressful to realize how inscrutable the downswing could be Crataegus oxycantha deal lessons from another industriousness fastened to ball-shaped commodity prices: mining equipment manufacturing.
Companies equivalent Caterpillar INC. proverb a crowing leap in gross revenue a few days rachis when China-LED take sent the toll of industrial commodities glide.
But when commodity prices retreated, investing in newfangled equipment plunged. Level now -- with mine yield convalescent along with copper and iron out ore prices -- Caterpillar says gross sales to the industry keep to topple as miners "sweat" the machines they already own.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that farm machinery gross revenue could tolerate for long time - fifty-fifty if granulate prices ricochet because of bad weather condition or early changes in issue.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are haywire.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a elderly equities analyst at the Golub Group, a California investing house that fresh took a punt in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers remain to peck to showrooms lured by what Bell ringer Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat berry on 2,000 demesne in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on used equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his Deere mix with 1,000 hours on it for ane with upright 400 hours on it. The deviation in damage between the two machines was simply all over $100,000 - and the principal offered to add Admiral Nelson that sum up interest-detached through with 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by Jacques Louis David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
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