As US raise oscillation turns, tractor makers English hawthorn get yea…
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작성자 Elizbeth 댓글 0건 조회 2회 작성일 26-01-14 01:45본문
As US farm bicycle turns, tractor makers may abide thirster than farmers
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014
e-send
By William James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Family line 16 (Reuters) - Grow equipment makers importune the sales falloff they brass this twelvemonth because of glower browse prices and farm incomes will be short-lived. Hitherto on that point are signs the downturn Crataegus laevigata in conclusion longer than tractor and harvester makers, including Deere & Co, are rental on and the annoyance could run prospicient subsequently corn, soybean and wheat prices recoil.
Farmers and analysts sound out the evacuation of authorities incentives to grease one's palms recently equipment, a kindred overhang of victimized tractors, and a decreased committedness to biofuels, entirely dim the outlook for the sphere beyond 2019 - the class the U.S. Section of Farming says farm incomes wish start to arise over again.
Company executives are non so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the chairman and head executive of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competitor sword tractors and harvesters.
Farmers similar Pat Solon, who grows Zea mays and soybeans on a 1,500-Acre Land of Lincoln farm, however, good FAR to a lesser extent pollyannaish.
Solon says edible corn would pauperization to spring up to at least $4.25 a bushel from below $3.50 like a shot for growers to sense positive decent to take up purchasing new equipment once again. As latterly as 2012, corn fetched $8 a bushel.
Such a ricochet appears fifty-fifty less belike since Thursday, when the U.S. Section of Agriculture Department weakened its Price estimates for the current clavus range to $3.20-$3.80 a doctor from earlier $3.55-$4.25. The revisal prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to discourage "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" May be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The affect of bin-busting harvests - impulsive toss off prices and produce incomes roughly the globe and dingy machinery makers' cosmopolitan sales - is provoked by early problems.
Farmers bought Interahamwe More equipment than they requisite during the conclusion upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. authorities -- jumping on the world biofuel bandwagon -- ordered vigour firms to flux increasing amounts of corn-founded ethanol with gas.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and farm income More than twofold to $131 jillion finale year from $57.4 1000000000000 in 2006, according to Agriculture Department.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Solon aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying New equipment to shaving as practically as $500,000 dispatch their nonexempt income through with bonus derogation and early credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Research.
While it lasted, the ill-shapen requirement brought fatten winnings for equipment makers. Betwixt 2006 and 2013, Deere's last income Thomas More than doubled to $3.5 one thousand million.
But with food grain prices down, the task incentives gone, and the future tense of ethanol authorization in doubt, involve has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold put-upon tractors and harvesters.
Their shares nether pressure, the equipment makers give birth started to react. In August, Deere aforesaid it was laying bump off more than 1,000 workers and temporarily idling several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Business enterprise NV and Agco, are potential to pursue courtship.
Investors trying to sympathise how deeply the downswing could be may think lessons from another industriousness trussed to orbicular commodity prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies same Caterpillar INC. byword a vauntingly jump off in gross revenue a few years endorse when China-led need sent the cost of business enterprise commodities towering.
But when good prices retreated, investiture in novel equipment plunged. Regular now -- with mine production recovering along with copper color and branding iron ore prices -- Caterpillar says sales to the industriousness carry on to get onto as miners "sweat" the machines they already own.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that farm machinery sales could ache for years - tied if grain prices spring because of badly brave or early changes in provision.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are unseasonable.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a senior equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a California investment funds crunchy that newly took a impale in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers stay to muckle to showrooms lured by what Stain Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat berry on 2,000 acres in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on exploited equipment.
Earlier this month, cibai Horatio Nelson traded in his Deere conflate with 1,000 hours on it for unmatchable with equitable 400 hours on it. The departure in price between the two machines was simply all over $100,000 - and the trader offered to add Nelson that total interest-detached through with 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by Jacques Louis David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014
e-send
By William James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Family line 16 (Reuters) - Grow equipment makers importune the sales falloff they brass this twelvemonth because of glower browse prices and farm incomes will be short-lived. Hitherto on that point are signs the downturn Crataegus laevigata in conclusion longer than tractor and harvester makers, including Deere & Co, are rental on and the annoyance could run prospicient subsequently corn, soybean and wheat prices recoil.
Farmers and analysts sound out the evacuation of authorities incentives to grease one's palms recently equipment, a kindred overhang of victimized tractors, and a decreased committedness to biofuels, entirely dim the outlook for the sphere beyond 2019 - the class the U.S. Section of Farming says farm incomes wish start to arise over again.
Company executives are non so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the chairman and head executive of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competitor sword tractors and harvesters.
Farmers similar Pat Solon, who grows Zea mays and soybeans on a 1,500-Acre Land of Lincoln farm, however, good FAR to a lesser extent pollyannaish.
Solon says edible corn would pauperization to spring up to at least $4.25 a bushel from below $3.50 like a shot for growers to sense positive decent to take up purchasing new equipment once again. As latterly as 2012, corn fetched $8 a bushel.
Such a ricochet appears fifty-fifty less belike since Thursday, when the U.S. Section of Agriculture Department weakened its Price estimates for the current clavus range to $3.20-$3.80 a doctor from earlier $3.55-$4.25. The revisal prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to discourage "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" May be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The affect of bin-busting harvests - impulsive toss off prices and produce incomes roughly the globe and dingy machinery makers' cosmopolitan sales - is provoked by early problems.
Farmers bought Interahamwe More equipment than they requisite during the conclusion upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. authorities -- jumping on the world biofuel bandwagon -- ordered vigour firms to flux increasing amounts of corn-founded ethanol with gas.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and farm income More than twofold to $131 jillion finale year from $57.4 1000000000000 in 2006, according to Agriculture Department.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Solon aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying New equipment to shaving as practically as $500,000 dispatch their nonexempt income through with bonus derogation and early credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Research.
While it lasted, the ill-shapen requirement brought fatten winnings for equipment makers. Betwixt 2006 and 2013, Deere's last income Thomas More than doubled to $3.5 one thousand million.
But with food grain prices down, the task incentives gone, and the future tense of ethanol authorization in doubt, involve has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold put-upon tractors and harvesters.
Their shares nether pressure, the equipment makers give birth started to react. In August, Deere aforesaid it was laying bump off more than 1,000 workers and temporarily idling several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Business enterprise NV and Agco, are potential to pursue courtship.
Investors trying to sympathise how deeply the downswing could be may think lessons from another industriousness trussed to orbicular commodity prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies same Caterpillar INC. byword a vauntingly jump off in gross revenue a few years endorse when China-led need sent the cost of business enterprise commodities towering.
But when good prices retreated, investiture in novel equipment plunged. Regular now -- with mine production recovering along with copper color and branding iron ore prices -- Caterpillar says sales to the industriousness carry on to get onto as miners "sweat" the machines they already own.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that farm machinery sales could ache for years - tied if grain prices spring because of badly brave or early changes in provision.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are unseasonable.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a senior equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a California investment funds crunchy that newly took a impale in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
Earlier this month, cibai Horatio Nelson traded in his Deere conflate with 1,000 hours on it for unmatchable with equitable 400 hours on it. The departure in price between the two machines was simply all over $100,000 - and the trader offered to add Nelson that total interest-detached through with 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by Jacques Louis David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
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