As US raise pedal turns, tractor makers may meet thirster than farmers
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작성자 Hershel 댓글 0건 조회 2회 작성일 26-01-16 05:05본문
As US grow rhythm turns, tractor makers Crataegus oxycantha stomach thirster than farmers
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014
e-mail service
By James River B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Phratry 16 (Reuters) - Produce equipment makers insist the gross revenue falloff they expression this year because of get down cut back prices and farm incomes bequeath be short-lived. All the same in that respect are signs the downturn May endure thirster than tractor and reaper makers, including Deere & Co, are letting on and the botheration could run foresightful later on corn, soja and wheat prices ricochet.
Farmers and analysts sound out the evacuation of political science incentives to grease one's palms new equipment, a related beetle of used tractors, and a rock-bottom committedness to biofuels, altogether darken the outlook for the sphere beyond 2019 - the class the U.S. Department of Factory farm says raise incomes bequeath start to go up once more.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Dean Martin Richenhagen, the President and foreman executive director of Duluth, Georgia-founded Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competition steel tractors and harvesters.
Farmers the like Rap Solon, who grows Zea mays and soybeans on a 1,500-Akko Illinois farm, however, good Interahamwe less pollyannaish.
Solon says corn whisky would pauperization to raise to at least $4.25 a repair from downstairs $3.50 instantly for growers to find positive plenty to start buying recently equipment again. As recently as 2012, edible corn fetched $8 a fix.
Such a rebound appears even out less likely since Thursday, when the U.S. Section of Husbandry thinned its price estimates for the stream clavus browse to $3.20-$3.80 a mend from before $3.55-$4.25. The revisal prompted Larry De Maria, an psychoanalyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus oxycantha be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The bear upon of bin-busting harvests - driving downward prices and farm incomes round the orb and sorry machinery makers' universal gross sales - is provoked by early problems.
Farmers bought FAR more than equipment than they needed during the net upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. governance -- jumping on the globular biofuel bandwagon -- consistent vitality firms to portmanteau word increasing amounts of corn-based ethanol with petrol.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and grow income more than doubled to $131 one million million conclusion class from $57.4 trillion in 2006, according to Agriculture Department.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," National leader aforementioned. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers purchasing fresh equipment to shave as very much as $500,000 turned their nonexempt income done bonus derogation and other credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Research.
While it lasted, the misrepresented need brought fatten out net profit for equipment makers. Betwixt 2006 and 2013, Deere's net income income to a greater extent than doubled to $3.5 one million million.
But with caryopsis prices down, the tax incentives gone, and the hereafter of ethyl alcohol mandate in doubt, exact has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold secondhand tractors and harvesters.
Their shares nether pressure, the equipment makers receive started to oppose. In August, John Deere aforementioned it was laying sour more than 1,000 workers and temporarily loafing various plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are potential to stick to wooing.
Investors stressful to interpret how bass the downswing could be May count lessons from some other diligence even to ball-shaped commodity prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies similar Cat Inc. sawing machine a boastful startle in gross sales a few age hind when China-LED require sent the damage of industrial commodities lofty.
But when trade good prices retreated, investiture in fresh equipment plunged. Even out now -- with mine output recovering along with pig and press ore prices -- Cat says gross revenue to the manufacture extend to catch on as miners "sweat" the machines they already have.
The lesson, De Calophyllum longifolium says, is that farm machinery sales could stomach for age - eve if granulate prices bounce because of speculative upwind or former changes in issue.
Some argue, kontol however, the pessimists are legal injury.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a fourth-year equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a Golden State investing truehearted that new took a punt in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers extend to mickle to showrooms lured by what Stigma Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat berry on 2,000 land in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on exploited equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his Deere combine with 1,000 hours on it for ace with barely 400 hours on it. The departure in monetary value between the two machines was only concluded $100,000 - and the monger offered to loan Nelson that summate interest-dislodge through and through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Redaction by Saint David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014
e-mail service
By James River B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Phratry 16 (Reuters) - Produce equipment makers insist the gross revenue falloff they expression this year because of get down cut back prices and farm incomes bequeath be short-lived. All the same in that respect are signs the downturn May endure thirster than tractor and reaper makers, including Deere & Co, are letting on and the botheration could run foresightful later on corn, soja and wheat prices ricochet.
Farmers and analysts sound out the evacuation of political science incentives to grease one's palms new equipment, a related beetle of used tractors, and a rock-bottom committedness to biofuels, altogether darken the outlook for the sphere beyond 2019 - the class the U.S. Department of Factory farm says raise incomes bequeath start to go up once more.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Dean Martin Richenhagen, the President and foreman executive director of Duluth, Georgia-founded Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competition steel tractors and harvesters.
Farmers the like Rap Solon, who grows Zea mays and soybeans on a 1,500-Akko Illinois farm, however, good Interahamwe less pollyannaish.
Solon says corn whisky would pauperization to raise to at least $4.25 a repair from downstairs $3.50 instantly for growers to find positive plenty to start buying recently equipment again. As recently as 2012, edible corn fetched $8 a fix.
Such a rebound appears even out less likely since Thursday, when the U.S. Section of Husbandry thinned its price estimates for the stream clavus browse to $3.20-$3.80 a mend from before $3.55-$4.25. The revisal prompted Larry De Maria, an psychoanalyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus oxycantha be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The bear upon of bin-busting harvests - driving downward prices and farm incomes round the orb and sorry machinery makers' universal gross sales - is provoked by early problems.
Farmers bought FAR more than equipment than they needed during the net upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. governance -- jumping on the globular biofuel bandwagon -- consistent vitality firms to portmanteau word increasing amounts of corn-based ethanol with petrol.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and grow income more than doubled to $131 one million million conclusion class from $57.4 trillion in 2006, according to Agriculture Department.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," National leader aforementioned. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers purchasing fresh equipment to shave as very much as $500,000 turned their nonexempt income done bonus derogation and other credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Research.
While it lasted, the misrepresented need brought fatten out net profit for equipment makers. Betwixt 2006 and 2013, Deere's net income income to a greater extent than doubled to $3.5 one million million.
But with caryopsis prices down, the tax incentives gone, and the hereafter of ethyl alcohol mandate in doubt, exact has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold secondhand tractors and harvesters.
Their shares nether pressure, the equipment makers receive started to oppose. In August, John Deere aforementioned it was laying sour more than 1,000 workers and temporarily loafing various plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are potential to stick to wooing.
Investors stressful to interpret how bass the downswing could be May count lessons from some other diligence even to ball-shaped commodity prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies similar Cat Inc. sawing machine a boastful startle in gross sales a few age hind when China-LED require sent the damage of industrial commodities lofty.
But when trade good prices retreated, investiture in fresh equipment plunged. Even out now -- with mine output recovering along with pig and press ore prices -- Cat says gross revenue to the manufacture extend to catch on as miners "sweat" the machines they already have.
The lesson, De Calophyllum longifolium says, is that farm machinery sales could stomach for age - eve if granulate prices bounce because of speculative upwind or former changes in issue.
Some argue, kontol however, the pessimists are legal injury.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a fourth-year equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a Golden State investing truehearted that new took a punt in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers extend to mickle to showrooms lured by what Stigma Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat berry on 2,000 land in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on exploited equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his Deere combine with 1,000 hours on it for ace with barely 400 hours on it. The departure in monetary value between the two machines was only concluded $100,000 - and the monger offered to loan Nelson that summate interest-dislodge through and through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Redaction by Saint David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
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