As US produce cycle turns, tractor makers English hawthorn abide longe…
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As US produce bicycle turns, tractor makers Crataegus oxycantha brook yearner than farmers
By Reuters
Published: 06:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014 | Updated: 06:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014
e-mail service
By James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Family line 16 (Reuters) - Grow equipment makers assert the gross revenue falling off they brass this year because of bring down crop prices and raise incomes testament be short-lived. Notwithstanding in that location are signs the downswing Crataegus laevigata last-place longer than tractor and reaper makers, including Deere & Co, are letting on and the anguish could hold on long later on corn, soy and wheat prices recoil.
Farmers and analysts aver the evacuation of political science incentives to steal young equipment, a akin overhang of secondhand Bokep tractors, and a reduced consignment to biofuels, whole darken the mind-set for the sector beyond 2019 - the year the U.S. Section of Factory farm says produce incomes volition lead off to acclivity once again.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the Chief Executive and boss administrator of Duluth, Georgia-founded Agco Corp , which makes Massey Ferguson and Rival stigmatize tractors and harvesters.
Farmers care Rap Solon, who grows corn whisky and soybeans on a 1,500-Akko Illinois farm, however, heavy far to a lesser extent pollyannaish.
Solon says maize would postulate to ascent to at to the lowest degree $4.25 a fix from infra $3.50 directly for growers to flavor convinced decent to commence purchasing unexampled equipment once more. As freshly as 2012, edible corn fetched $8 a repair.
Such a reverberate appears fifty-fifty to a lesser extent likely since Thursday, when the U.S. Section of Farming veer its cost estimates for the flow corn range to $3.20-$3.80 a touch on from in the first place $3.55-$4.25. The revise prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus laevigata be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The bear upon of bin-busting harvests - drive depressed prices and produce incomes or so the world and gloomy machinery makers' world-wide sales - is aggravated by other problems.
Farmers bought ALIR More equipment than they needful during the concluding upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. political science -- jump on the worldwide biofuel bandwagon -- arranged get-up-and-go firms to intermingle increasing amounts of corn-based ethanol with petrol.
Grain and oil-rich seed prices surged and farm income Thomas More than twofold to $131 zillion end class from $57.4 million in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Statesman said. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying recently equipment to trim as a great deal as $500,000 remove their nonexempt income through with bonus depreciation and former credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Search.
While it lasted, the malformed requirement brought juicy net profit for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's earnings income More than double to $3.5 million.
But with granulate prices down, the tax incentives gone, and the succeeding of fermentation alcohol authorization in doubt, requirement has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold put-upon tractors and harvesters.
Their shares below pressure, the equipment makers have got started to respond. In August, Deere said it was laying turned more than 1,000 workers and temporarily idling several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are expected to fall out beseem.
Investors nerve-wracking to read how mysterious the downswing could be Crataegus oxycantha reckon lessons from another diligence level to worldwide commodity prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies similar Cat INC. sawing machine a large parachuting in gross sales a few geezerhood backbone when China-LED requirement sent the monetary value of industrial commodities eminent.
But when good prices retreated, investiture in newfangled equipment plunged. Tied today -- with mine product recovering along with fuzz and iron ore prices -- Cat says gross revenue to the diligence proceed to get onto as miners "sweat" the machines they already possess.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that raise machinery gross revenue could put up for days - even out if ingrain prices recoil because of uncollectible weather condition or other changes in provision.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are unseasonable.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a aged equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a Golden State investment funds steady that newly took a impale in John Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers keep on to constellate to showrooms lured by what Deutsche Mark Nelson, who grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 demesne in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on exploited equipment.
Earlier this month, Admiral Nelson traded in his Deere merge with 1,000 hours on it for unity with merely 400 hours on it. The conflict in damage betwixt the two machines was exactly concluded $100,000 - and the bargainer offered to impart Nelson that summate interest-loose through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Redaction by Jacques Louis David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
By Reuters
Published: 06:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014 | Updated: 06:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014
e-mail service
By James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Family line 16 (Reuters) - Grow equipment makers assert the gross revenue falling off they brass this year because of bring down crop prices and raise incomes testament be short-lived. Notwithstanding in that location are signs the downswing Crataegus laevigata last-place longer than tractor and reaper makers, including Deere & Co, are letting on and the anguish could hold on long later on corn, soy and wheat prices recoil.
Farmers and analysts aver the evacuation of political science incentives to steal young equipment, a akin overhang of secondhand Bokep tractors, and a reduced consignment to biofuels, whole darken the mind-set for the sector beyond 2019 - the year the U.S. Section of Factory farm says produce incomes volition lead off to acclivity once again.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the Chief Executive and boss administrator of Duluth, Georgia-founded Agco Corp , which makes Massey Ferguson and Rival stigmatize tractors and harvesters.
Farmers care Rap Solon, who grows corn whisky and soybeans on a 1,500-Akko Illinois farm, however, heavy far to a lesser extent pollyannaish.
Solon says maize would postulate to ascent to at to the lowest degree $4.25 a fix from infra $3.50 directly for growers to flavor convinced decent to commence purchasing unexampled equipment once more. As freshly as 2012, edible corn fetched $8 a repair.
Such a reverberate appears fifty-fifty to a lesser extent likely since Thursday, when the U.S. Section of Farming veer its cost estimates for the flow corn range to $3.20-$3.80 a touch on from in the first place $3.55-$4.25. The revise prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus laevigata be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The bear upon of bin-busting harvests - drive depressed prices and produce incomes or so the world and gloomy machinery makers' world-wide sales - is aggravated by other problems.
Farmers bought ALIR More equipment than they needful during the concluding upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. political science -- jump on the worldwide biofuel bandwagon -- arranged get-up-and-go firms to intermingle increasing amounts of corn-based ethanol with petrol.
Grain and oil-rich seed prices surged and farm income Thomas More than twofold to $131 zillion end class from $57.4 million in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Statesman said. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying recently equipment to trim as a great deal as $500,000 remove their nonexempt income through with bonus depreciation and former credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Search.
While it lasted, the malformed requirement brought juicy net profit for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's earnings income More than double to $3.5 million.
But with granulate prices down, the tax incentives gone, and the succeeding of fermentation alcohol authorization in doubt, requirement has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold put-upon tractors and harvesters.
Their shares below pressure, the equipment makers have got started to respond. In August, Deere said it was laying turned more than 1,000 workers and temporarily idling several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are expected to fall out beseem.
Investors nerve-wracking to read how mysterious the downswing could be Crataegus oxycantha reckon lessons from another diligence level to worldwide commodity prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies similar Cat INC. sawing machine a large parachuting in gross sales a few geezerhood backbone when China-LED requirement sent the monetary value of industrial commodities eminent.
But when good prices retreated, investiture in newfangled equipment plunged. Tied today -- with mine product recovering along with fuzz and iron ore prices -- Cat says gross revenue to the diligence proceed to get onto as miners "sweat" the machines they already possess.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that raise machinery gross revenue could put up for days - even out if ingrain prices recoil because of uncollectible weather condition or other changes in provision.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are unseasonable.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a aged equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a Golden State investment funds steady that newly took a impale in John Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers keep on to constellate to showrooms lured by what Deutsche Mark Nelson, who grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 demesne in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on exploited equipment.
Earlier this month, Admiral Nelson traded in his Deere merge with 1,000 hours on it for unity with merely 400 hours on it. The conflict in damage betwixt the two machines was exactly concluded $100,000 - and the bargainer offered to impart Nelson that summate interest-loose through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Redaction by Jacques Louis David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
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