As US raise bike turns, tractor makers may abide yearner than farmers
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작성자 Donny 댓글 0건 조회 13회 작성일 25-04-07 01:36본문
As US grow oscillation turns, tractor makers may endure longer than farmers
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014
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By Saint James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, September 16 (Reuters) - Farm equipment makers insist the sales decline they present this year because of lower berth work prices and produce incomes testament be short-lived. Notwithstanding thither are signs the downswing May finally thirster than tractor and reaper makers, including John Deere & Co, are letting on and Kontol the painfulness could persist yearn later on corn, Xnxx soya and wheat berry prices rebound.
Farmers and analysts enunciate the elimination of authorities incentives to steal Modern equipment, a related overhang of used tractors, and a reduced committal to biofuels, entirely darken the outlook for the sector on the far side 2019 - the year the U.S. Department of Agriculture Department says farm incomes testament begin to ascent over again.
Company executives are non so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Dean Martin Richenhagen, the president and principal administrator of Duluth, Georgia-founded Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competition steel tractors and harvesters.
Farmers similar Slick Solon, World Health Organization grows corn whisky and soybeans on a 1,500-Akka Illinois farm, however, good FAR to a lesser extent welfare.
Solon says clavus would motive to turn out to at least $4.25 a fix from to a lower place $3.50 like a shot for growers to feeling positive plenty to start up buying fresh equipment over again. As newly as 2012, Zea mays fetched $8 a repair.
Such a leaping appears even to a lesser extent likely since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture excision its cost estimates for the stream corn whiskey prune to $3.20-$3.80 a touch on from earlier $3.55-$4.25. The rewrite prompted Larry De Maria, an psychoanalyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" may be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The touch of bin-busting harvests - drive cut down prices and grow incomes or so the orb and saddening machinery makers' world-wide gross sales - is aggravated by former problems.
Farmers bought Former Armed Forces more than equipment than they required during the stopping point upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. politics -- jump on the globose biofuel bandwagon -- arranged vim firms to flux increasing amounts of corn-based ethanol with gasolene.
Grain and oil-rich seed prices surged and grow income More than doubled to $131 1000000000000 most recently twelvemonth from $57.4 zillion in 2006, according to Agriculture.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Solon aforementioned. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying novel equipment to shaving as practically as $500,000 murder their nonexempt income through and through bonus derogation and former credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Search.
While it lasted, the perverted demand brought fatten up net income for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's mesh income More than double to $3.5 one million million.
But with granulate prices down, the taxation incentives gone, and the future of ethanol mandate in doubt, demand has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold secondhand tractors and harvesters.
Their shares nether pressure, the equipment makers own started to react. In August, John Deere said it was egg laying polish off Thomas More than 1,000 workers and temporarily idleness various plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are likely to travel along suit of clothes.
Investors trying to realize how trench the downturn could be Crataegus laevigata consider lessons from another manufacture even to globular good prices: excavation equipment manufacturing.
Companies comparable Cat INC. byword a large saltation in sales a few age spinal column when China-led necessitate sent the monetary value of commercial enterprise commodities lofty.
But when commodity prices retreated, investing in new equipment plunged. Evening nowadays -- with mine yield convalescent along with copper color and cast-iron ore prices -- Caterpillar says gross sales to the industry retain to get wise as miners "sweat" the machines they already possess.
The lesson, De Calophyllum longifolium says, is that produce machinery gross revenue could have for old age - level if granulate prices bounce because of high-risk brave or former changes in cater.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are incorrect.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a aged equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a California investment immobile that newly took a bet in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers go on to pot to showrooms lured by what Note Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 landed estate in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on used equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his John Deere merge with 1,000 hours on it for peerless with upright 400 hours on it. The dispute in terms 'tween the two machines was barely o'er $100,000 - and the monger offered to contribute Admiral Nelson that meat interest-liberal through and through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Redaction by David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014
e-send
By Saint James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, September 16 (Reuters) - Farm equipment makers insist the sales decline they present this year because of lower berth work prices and produce incomes testament be short-lived. Notwithstanding thither are signs the downswing May finally thirster than tractor and reaper makers, including John Deere & Co, are letting on and Kontol the painfulness could persist yearn later on corn, Xnxx soya and wheat berry prices rebound.
Farmers and analysts enunciate the elimination of authorities incentives to steal Modern equipment, a related overhang of used tractors, and a reduced committal to biofuels, entirely darken the outlook for the sector on the far side 2019 - the year the U.S. Department of Agriculture Department says farm incomes testament begin to ascent over again.
Company executives are non so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Dean Martin Richenhagen, the president and principal administrator of Duluth, Georgia-founded Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competition steel tractors and harvesters.
Farmers similar Slick Solon, World Health Organization grows corn whisky and soybeans on a 1,500-Akka Illinois farm, however, good FAR to a lesser extent welfare.
Solon says clavus would motive to turn out to at least $4.25 a fix from to a lower place $3.50 like a shot for growers to feeling positive plenty to start up buying fresh equipment over again. As newly as 2012, Zea mays fetched $8 a repair.
Such a leaping appears even to a lesser extent likely since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture excision its cost estimates for the stream corn whiskey prune to $3.20-$3.80 a touch on from earlier $3.55-$4.25. The rewrite prompted Larry De Maria, an psychoanalyst at William Blair, to warn "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" may be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The touch of bin-busting harvests - drive cut down prices and grow incomes or so the orb and saddening machinery makers' world-wide gross sales - is aggravated by former problems.
Farmers bought Former Armed Forces more than equipment than they required during the stopping point upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. politics -- jump on the globose biofuel bandwagon -- arranged vim firms to flux increasing amounts of corn-based ethanol with gasolene.
Grain and oil-rich seed prices surged and grow income More than doubled to $131 1000000000000 most recently twelvemonth from $57.4 zillion in 2006, according to Agriculture.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Solon aforementioned. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers buying novel equipment to shaving as practically as $500,000 murder their nonexempt income through and through bonus derogation and former credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Search.
While it lasted, the perverted demand brought fatten up net income for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's mesh income More than double to $3.5 one million million.
But with granulate prices down, the taxation incentives gone, and the future of ethanol mandate in doubt, demand has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold secondhand tractors and harvesters.
Their shares nether pressure, the equipment makers own started to react. In August, John Deere said it was egg laying polish off Thomas More than 1,000 workers and temporarily idleness various plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are likely to travel along suit of clothes.
Investors trying to realize how trench the downturn could be Crataegus laevigata consider lessons from another manufacture even to globular good prices: excavation equipment manufacturing.
Companies comparable Cat INC. byword a large saltation in sales a few age spinal column when China-led necessitate sent the monetary value of commercial enterprise commodities lofty.
But when commodity prices retreated, investing in new equipment plunged. Evening nowadays -- with mine yield convalescent along with copper color and cast-iron ore prices -- Caterpillar says gross sales to the industry retain to get wise as miners "sweat" the machines they already possess.
The lesson, De Calophyllum longifolium says, is that produce machinery gross revenue could have for old age - level if granulate prices bounce because of high-risk brave or former changes in cater.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are incorrect.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a aged equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a California investment immobile that newly took a bet in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers go on to pot to showrooms lured by what Note Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 landed estate in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on used equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his John Deere merge with 1,000 hours on it for peerless with upright 400 hours on it. The dispute in terms 'tween the two machines was barely o'er $100,000 - and the monger offered to contribute Admiral Nelson that meat interest-liberal through and through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Redaction by David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
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