An Integrated Abundance Model for Estimating County-Degree Prevalence of Opioid Misuse In Ohio > 자유게시판

We lack direct information on the prevalence of PWMO in all of Ohio’s counties. However, we do have indirect info on this amount in the form of surveillance information collected on the county level. Specifically, we now have access to counts of overdose deaths and remedy admissions yearly for every county. However, neither surveillance end result is a perfect reflection of PWMO because there are unique selection processes related to capturing an individual in either noticed end result which might be probably heterogeneous across house and time. For example, overdose loss of life rates are possible related to produce of fentanyl in the native drug market (Pardo et al., 2019). Likewise, treatment admissions are associated to local entry to care. This heterogeneity prevents us from merely assuming that there is an ideal correlation between the surveillance outcomes and underlying unobservable prevalence of PWMO. Instead, we should explicitly account for these choice processes. This is structurally much like the problem confronted in ecological applications of estimating inhabitants abundance with unmarked observations and unknown detection (i.e., selection) probabilities.

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