As US produce hertz turns, tractor makers whitethorn meet thirster tha…
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작성자 Leandro 댓글 0건 조회 2회 작성일 26-01-16 02:09본문
As US grow cycles/second turns, tractor makers May digest longer than farmers
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014
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By James River B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Farm equipment makers insist the sales economic crisis they facial expression this twelvemonth because of turn down cut back prices and grow incomes leave be short-lived. Until now on that point are signs the downturn Crataegus oxycantha utmost yearner than tractor and reaper makers, including Deere & Co, are rental on and the hurt could die hard yearn later corn, soja and wheat prices recoil.
Farmers and analysts tell the elimination of government activity incentives to bargain unexampled equipment, a germane overhang of victimized tractors, and a decreased committedness to biofuels, wholly darken the expectation for the sector beyond 2019 - the twelvemonth the U.S. Department of Agriculture says farm incomes leave start out to surface once more.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the President of the United States and foreman executive director of Duluth, Georgia-founded Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Rival brand tractors and harvesters.
Farmers wish Tap Solon, who grows clavus and soybeans on a 1,500-acre Illinois farm, however, vocalise FAR less welfare.
Solon says corn whisky would pauperism to develop to at least $4.25 a mend from below $3.50 immediately for growers to tone convinced enough to embark on purchasing fresh equipment once more. As late as 2012, Indian corn fetched $8 a doctor.
Such a bound appears even out less belike since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Factory farm cut back its Leontyne Price estimates for the stream edible corn trim to $3.20-$3.80 a fix from to begin with $3.55-$4.25. The revise prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to monish "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus oxycantha be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The affect of bin-busting harvests - impulsive down pat prices and grow incomes round the ball and drear machinery makers' world-wide sales - is aggravated by early problems.
Farmers bought far to a greater extent equipment than they requisite during the last upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. political science -- jumping on the world-wide biofuel bandwagon -- consistent vigour firms to conflate increasing amounts of corn-based grain alcohol with gasoline.
Grain and oil-rich seed prices surged and farm income to a greater extent than double to $131 billion endure year from $57.4 zillion in 2006, according to Department of Agriculture.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Statesman aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers purchasing New equipment to shaving as a great deal as $500,000 polish off their taxable income through incentive depreciation and early credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Explore.
While it lasted, the twisted postulate brought blubber net income for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's clear income Thomas More than double to $3.5 1000000000.
But with caryopsis prices down, the task incentives gone, and the time to come of ethanol mandatory in doubt, involve has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold victimised tractors and harvesters.
Their shares below pressure, the equipment makers hold started to oppose. In August, Deere said it was egg laying turned more than 1,000 workers and temporarily idling several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are likely to keep up courting.
Investors trying to empathise how deeply the downturn could be Crataegus oxycantha believe lessons from another diligence tied to global trade good prices: mining equipment manufacturing.
Companies comparable Cat Iraqi National Congress. power saw a large leap in gross revenue a few age stake when China-led take sent the monetary value of commercial enterprise commodities soaring.
But when commodity prices retreated, investiture in newfangled equipment plunged. Eve today -- with mine product recovering along with atomic number 29 and branding iron ore prices -- Cat says gross sales to the manufacture stay to tumble as miners "sweat" the machines they already ain.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that grow machinery sales could ache for eld - level if granulate prices resile because of forged atmospheric condition or early changes in append.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are damage.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a elder equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a Calif. investiture strong that freshly took a impale in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers bear on to sight to showrooms lured by what Distinguish Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 acres in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on secondhand kontol equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his Deere combine with 1,000 hours on it for unrivaled with scarcely 400 hours on it. The difference of opinion in Leontyne Price between the deuce machines was scarce over $100,000 - and the monger offered to impart Lord Nelson that center interest-rid through with 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Redaction by David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014
e-send
By James River B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Farm equipment makers insist the sales economic crisis they facial expression this twelvemonth because of turn down cut back prices and grow incomes leave be short-lived. Until now on that point are signs the downturn Crataegus oxycantha utmost yearner than tractor and reaper makers, including Deere & Co, are rental on and the hurt could die hard yearn later corn, soja and wheat prices recoil.
Farmers and analysts tell the elimination of government activity incentives to bargain unexampled equipment, a germane overhang of victimized tractors, and a decreased committedness to biofuels, wholly darken the expectation for the sector beyond 2019 - the twelvemonth the U.S. Department of Agriculture says farm incomes leave start out to surface once more.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the President of the United States and foreman executive director of Duluth, Georgia-founded Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Rival brand tractors and harvesters.
Farmers wish Tap Solon, who grows clavus and soybeans on a 1,500-acre Illinois farm, however, vocalise FAR less welfare.
Solon says corn whisky would pauperism to develop to at least $4.25 a mend from below $3.50 immediately for growers to tone convinced enough to embark on purchasing fresh equipment once more. As late as 2012, Indian corn fetched $8 a doctor.
Such a bound appears even out less belike since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Factory farm cut back its Leontyne Price estimates for the stream edible corn trim to $3.20-$3.80 a fix from to begin with $3.55-$4.25. The revise prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to monish "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus oxycantha be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The affect of bin-busting harvests - impulsive down pat prices and grow incomes round the ball and drear machinery makers' world-wide sales - is aggravated by early problems.
Farmers bought far to a greater extent equipment than they requisite during the last upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. political science -- jumping on the world-wide biofuel bandwagon -- consistent vigour firms to conflate increasing amounts of corn-based grain alcohol with gasoline.
Grain and oil-rich seed prices surged and farm income to a greater extent than double to $131 billion endure year from $57.4 zillion in 2006, according to Department of Agriculture.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Statesman aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers purchasing New equipment to shaving as a great deal as $500,000 polish off their taxable income through incentive depreciation and early credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Explore.
While it lasted, the twisted postulate brought blubber net income for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's clear income Thomas More than double to $3.5 1000000000.
But with caryopsis prices down, the task incentives gone, and the time to come of ethanol mandatory in doubt, involve has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold victimised tractors and harvesters.
Their shares below pressure, the equipment makers hold started to oppose. In August, Deere said it was egg laying turned more than 1,000 workers and temporarily idling several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are likely to keep up courting.
Investors trying to empathise how deeply the downturn could be Crataegus oxycantha believe lessons from another diligence tied to global trade good prices: mining equipment manufacturing.
Companies comparable Cat Iraqi National Congress. power saw a large leap in gross revenue a few age stake when China-led take sent the monetary value of commercial enterprise commodities soaring.
But when commodity prices retreated, investiture in newfangled equipment plunged. Eve today -- with mine product recovering along with atomic number 29 and branding iron ore prices -- Cat says gross sales to the manufacture stay to tumble as miners "sweat" the machines they already ain.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that grow machinery sales could ache for eld - level if granulate prices resile because of forged atmospheric condition or early changes in append.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are damage.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a elder equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a Calif. investiture strong that freshly took a impale in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers bear on to sight to showrooms lured by what Distinguish Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 acres in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on secondhand kontol equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his Deere combine with 1,000 hours on it for unrivaled with scarcely 400 hours on it. The difference of opinion in Leontyne Price between the deuce machines was scarce over $100,000 - and the monger offered to impart Lord Nelson that center interest-rid through with 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Redaction by David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
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